28/10/09
Non investite in Italia nel settore ambientale: e' troppo rischioso!
Questa è la conclusione che un potenziale investitore italiano o straniero deve necessariamente trarre dopo aver letto un rapporto della Deutsche Bank intitolato "Global Climate Change Policy Tracker: An Investor's Assessment".
Un ufficio studi di questa banca (il DB Climate Change Advisors), in collaborazione con il Columbia Climate Center dell'Earth Institute della Columbia University di New York, ha effettuato un'analisi del rischio per chi volesse investire nel settore ambientale nei vari Paesi del mondo, con particolare riferimento a quelle attività legate alla mitigazione dei cambiamenti climatici, come, ad esempio, lo sviluppo e la produzione di energie rinnovabili.
Quali sono i risultati di questa analisi? Lasciando chi fosse interessato alla lettura del rapporto (liberamente scaricabile qui), vado direttamente alle conclusioni. Ebbene, Germania, Francia, Giappone, ma anche Paesi come la Cina, che comunemente l'opinione pubblica ritiene restia ad investire in questo campo, appaiono particolarmente appetibili agli investitori, soprattutto per le strategie lungimiranti dei loro politici che spesso si concretizzano in incentivi (come ad esempio le cosidette feed-in tariff policies). Altri Paesi, come gli Stati Uniti, la Gran Bretagna e il Canada, sono considerati a medio rischio.
E noi? Ebbene, l'Italia viene considerata un Paese ad alto rischio per gli investitori in questo campo, soprattutto perché oggi l'Italia non ha nessuna politica di incentivazione ambientale e, in generale, non ha una chiara politica ambientale e climatica: e, si sa, gli investitori hanno bisogno anche di certezze e stabilità.
Certo, a tale situazione deve aver contribuito la politica ambientale di questo Governo, prima appiattita sulle posizioni "scettiche" dell'amministrazione Bush e ora in cerca di una identità ambientale. E così oggi una foto del Presidente Berlusconi campeggia nella home page del sito dedicato alla Conferenza di Copenhagen (si veda qui nel momento in cui questa notizia dovesse essere tolta dalla prima pagina). Nel titolo si afferma che gli investimenti "climatici" in Italia sono solo per i coraggiosi. Un'altra bella figura a livello internazionale...
Non voglio fare considerazioni di nessun tipo. Certo è che, ancora una volta, il mondo non ci aspetterà.
This report, "Global Climate Change Policy Tracker: An Investor's Assessment" (Climate Tracker), provides investors with an analysis of climate change policies and assigns a risk rating to 109 countries, states and regions based on key government mandates and supporting policy frameworks. The report was produced by DBCCA, working with the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University.
The "Climate Tracker" is the first publicly-available analysis of its kind. It incorporates results of a model prepared by Columbia Climate Center researchers that estimates the impacts on carbon emissions of each of 270 major climate policies, and aggregates them at country, regional and global levels. The "Climate Tracker" provides a risk rating of countries and regions based on their relative attractiveness to investors. It is designed to help investors identify the best risk-adjusted returns in climate change investment opportunities around the world.
Highlights of the research include the following:
· Even if current and select proposed policies were to make their maximum possible impact, emissions in 2020 would still exceed the amount needed to limit the average world temperature increase to 2 degrees C. To meet such a goal, emissions would need to be reduced further, by an amount equivalent to the current annual emissions of the U.S. economy.
· More capital is required to mobilize climate change industries, and more action by government is required to attract capital. Investors are most attracted to countries and regions with comprehensive, integrated government plans that are supported by strong incentives, such as feed-in tariffs.
· Governments must create transparent, long-term, and certain policies to attract capital. While the carbon markets may offer long term solutions, at present investors are driven by on-the-ground mandates and incentives.
· Energy efficiency could help deliver significant reductions in emissions. Since efficiency provides savings in the long-term, it is essential that governments tackle market failures to encourage capital deployment in this area.
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